Game Theory (Snoopy and the Red Baron)

Written by Poker Penguin
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Give your opponent the opportunity to make the mistake.
Pop Quiz Hotshot (you're Snoopy)

Situation. You, Snoopy, are first to act on the river in a $1-2 limit holdem game headsup with the Red Baron and $8 in the pot. Betting patterns and the board make you think that old Manfred might well have missed the board. Unfortunately, so have you and Manfred might just have made a pair or something. Your Ace high should beat a stone cold bluff, but nothing else.

Check or bet? You could check, and then call if bet / pot > chance of opponent is bluffing. But can you really tell if the Red Baron is 33% likely to bluff at the river, or just 25%?


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